Breakback model · today · situation scout
Tennis Breakback Paths
Paste a TennisLive match link. Choose who just broke serve, then see the immediate breakback, hold, and conditional set-outcome paths. Men and women use separate rating pools.
Select two supported players
Paste a ATP / Challenger / ITF link or type player names from the current men's model.
For the skeptics
Does Elo spread actually predict breakbacks?
Yes — and it holds separately for men and women. On a chronological 12-month holdout (mature ratings only), realized immediate-breakback rate climbs almost linearly with the Elo gap between the attacker and the post-break holder. Band-level correlation is ~0.99 in both tours; absolute rates sit higher on the women's side because women break back more often overall.
Men
baseline 23.5% · n=36,500| Elo spread | Breakback % | N | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| < −150 | 8.1% | 335 | 0.34x |
| −150 to −100 | 13.4% | 1,086 | 0.57x |
| −100 to −50 | 16.8% | 4,234 | 0.71x |
| −50 to 0 | 20.1% | 10,979 | 0.85x |
| 0 to +50 | 25.7% | 12,431 | 1.09x |
| +50 to +100 | 30.1% | 6,037 | 1.28x |
| +100 to +150 | 35.5% | 1,269 | 1.51x |
| ≥ +150 | 34.9% | 129 | 1.48x |
Women
baseline 35.6% · n=22,117| Elo spread | Breakback % | N | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| < −150 | 19.1% | 152 | 0.54x |
| −150 to −100 | 20.4% | 652 | 0.57x |
| −100 to −50 | 27.3% | 2,618 | 0.77x |
| −50 to 0 | 32.4% | 6,460 | 0.91x |
| 0 to +50 | 37.9% | 7,862 | 1.06x |
| +50 to +100 | 42.7% | 3,573 | 1.20x |
| +100 to +150 | 49.2% | 727 | 1.38x |
| ≥ +150 | 49.3% | 73 | 1.39x |